BITCOIN – should you have it?

If I could sum up the contents of my junk emails over the last 12 months in a single word it would be: Bitcoin. I can’t tell you how many unsolicited invitations I’ve received to start trading bitcoin – you may have experienced the same thing. This alone is a concern but when heavy hitters like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) start calling out the risks of bitcoin, the warning bells should definitely start ringing. 

By way of background, bitcoin is one of many “cryptocurrencies” or digital currencies that isn’t backed by governments or banks. It relies on a decentralised peer-to-peer network called a blockchain – a vast digital ledger that uses complicated calculations to record all transactions made using bitcoin.

The technical details are complex. What is much easier to grasp is the meteoric rise of bitcoin.

Big gains means big risks

For years you could buy bitcoin for the price of a restaurant meal. Then in 2016 it started to take off. By mid-December 2017 bitcoin had soared in value to $AUD25,410. And that is where things headed south. In mid-January 2018 bitcoin’s value had tanked to $AUD12,893, more recently mid March $AUD11,145.  As so often happens in speculative markets, some people have made big money. But plenty of latecomers would have experienced terrible losses.

Security concerns

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. But one of the fundamental rules of investing is that big returns come with big risks. Another maxim for successful investing is only invest in something you understand, and it’s a reasonable bet plenty of people don’t fully grasp how cryptocurrencies work.

The problem is, crooks do. A report by the University of Cambridge notes that 22% of bitcoin exchanges have experienced security breaches. The same report says less than half the cryptocurrency payment companies in the Asia-Pacific, Europe and Latin America hold a government license.

It’s hardly reassuring stuff. And just recently the IMF warned that cryptocurrencies can “post considerable risks as potential vehicles for money laundering, terrorist financing, tax evasion and fraud”.

Yet in spite of this, investors are still pouring money in, hoping to ride a second wave of gains.

Is bitcoin a good investment?

History is littered with fallout from speculative markets, and the pattern is often similar – a steep rise in value fueled by investors coming on board late in the cycle for fear of missing out.

For my money, a good investment is backed by a quality asset – like shares in a successful company, a well-located investment property, or units in a managed fund run by a reputable team. There are an abundance of such investments to choose from, and as your adviser I can help you narrow down the choice of what is right for you.

As it stands, cryptocurrencies are largely unregulated, and without the backing of an underlying asset there is no reason why their value should continue to rise other than demand from over-exuberant investors. If you plan to invest in bitcoin, my advice is only tip in money you can afford to lose.

If you would like to invest in proven assets with a track record of ongoing returns and long term capital gains, backed by best of breed research, contact us for professional advice on a portfolio tailored to your goals.