2026 is ahead… here’s what the smart money is watching

Every January the same thing happens.

Economists dust off their crystal balls.

Fund managers publish big outlook reports.

Headlines scream predictions about markets, rates and recessions.

And most people read them thinking:

“Should I be doing something… or nothing?”

The real problem isn’t bad predictions.

It’s information overload.

So this week, I’ve done the heavy lifting and pulled together the key themes showing up across major investment managers and market educators looking ahead to 2026.

No hype.

No jargon.

Just the ideas that actually matter.

Here’s the big picture we’re seeing.

Markets may feel strong, but they’re getting narrower.

A common theme is that markets are being driven by fewer and fewer stocks. When that happens, things can feel fine… until they’re not. This doesn’t mean a crash is guaranteed, but it does mean returns may be bumpier and more selective.

Think of it like a surf beach.

The waves are still rolling in, but fewer people are catching them.

Liquidity still matters more than headlines.

Big investors care deeply about one thing: how much money is flowing through the system.

When central banks are easing or even just less aggressive, risk assets tend to breathe easier. When liquidity tightens, markets get jumpy fast.

This is why markets can rise even when the news feels bad, or fall when the news sounds good.

Markets are a bit like a garden hose.

When the tap is on, everything grows easier.

When the tap tightens, even good plants struggle.

Interest rates may stay higher for longer, just not in a straight line.

Most outlooks agree on one thing: the era of “emergency-low” interest rates is behind us.

Rates look to stay on hold for the next 6months.

Yes, cuts may come.

But they’re likely to be slower, smaller and more uneven than many people expect.

Why?

Because inflation hasn’t fully gone away.

Governments are carrying more debt.

And bond markets want to be paid properly for risk.

This means we’re likely to see:

• Rates that don’t fall as fast as headlines hope

• More ups and downs along the way

• Borrowing staying expensive compared to the last decade

For households and investors, this makes cashflow, buffers and flexibility more important than trying to time the next rate move.

Geopolitics isn’t noise anymore.

Energy markets, supply chains and global tensions are playing a bigger role than they used to. Oil price spikes, trade disputes and regional conflicts are now regular inputs into market behaviour, not rare shocks.

That doesn’t mean panic.

It means diversification matters more than ever.

Commodities are back in focus.

Gold tends to shine when uncertainty is high.

Critical metals like copper tend to move when growth is coming.

Then flows often move into strategic and technology metals like rare earth elements and graphite.

Many managers are talking about a long-term commodities cycle driven by infrastructure, energy transition and innovation. It’s not about short-term trades, but understanding where demand is building over time.

Small caps are higher risk, higher reward.

Smaller companies can do very well when conditions line up, but timing and patience matter. These aren’t “set and forget” investments. They need context and discipline.

A quick note for our clients we work with each year on a Wealth Partner Plan.

You’ll see some upcoming changes to portfolios, particularly an increase in exposure to commodities. This isn’t new for us, we’ve already had exposure in place and have seen strong results from it over the last 18 months.

This next step is about leaning into themes we believe still have a long runway, while staying diversified and disciplined.

So what do we do with all of this?

We come back to our framework:

Clarity before predictions.

Diversification over conviction.

Planning beats reacting.

There’s a quote I love that fits perfectly here:

“You don’t need to predict the future. You need to be prepared for it.”

The goal isn’t to guess what 2026 will bring.

It’s to build a plan that works if markets are strong, if they wobble, or if they surprise everyone.

If you’re unsure whether your current setup is built for the next few years, contact us with “2026” or SMS to 0483 937 777 and we’ll walk through it together.

Because the best plans don’t rely on forecasts.

They rely on flexibility.

Talk soon.

7Wealth Pty Ltd ABN 44609210246 is a Corporate Authorised Representatives and is authorised throughCobalt AdvisersPty Ltd ABN 64 628 654 099 who is an Australian Financial Services Licensee 512550. 7Wealth Pty Ltd is a Credit Representative ofAustralian Finance GroupLtd ABN 11 066 385 822 (AFG) Australian Credit Licence 389087.
This blog contains information that is general in nature. It does not constitute financial or taxation advice. The information does not take into account your objectives, needs and circumstances. We recommend that you obtain investment and taxation advice specific to your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs before making any investment decision or acting on any of the information contained in this document. Subject to law, Cobalt Advisers Pty Ltd nor their directors, employees or authorised representatives, do not give any representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information; or accepts any responsibility for any person acting, or refraining from acting, on the basis of the information contained in this document.