Property Prices, Supply Shortages & July Rate Cuts—What’s Next? 

We’re not building fast enough. And that’s setting the stage for what’s coming next. 

Lately, we’ve had a few conversations with clients wondering: 

“If the property market is softening, why haven’t prices fallen further?” 

Here’s what most people miss, especially if they’re only watching headlines. 

Yes, buyer sentiment has been cautious… 

Yes, prices in some cities have paused or dipped… 

But behind the scenes?  

There’s a different story playing out. 

We’re simply not building enough homes. 

This came up in a recent update from Michael Matusik, who pointed to a pretty alarming stat: in most parts of Australia, new housing supply is falling well short of population growth. 

According to Michael Matusik, Australia needs at least 240,000 new homes per year to meet demand. However, current build rates are falling well short, with recent annual completions hovering around 170,000 to 180,000. 

Matusik's chart shows that last year Australia approved just 6 new homes per 1,000 residents. This level of supply was 10 per 1,000 residents a decade ago. That’s a 40% decline! 

That’s especially true in Southeast Queensland, where strong migration is being met with sluggish construction and limited stock. Even with a cooling market, this mismatch is quietly propping up prices. 

Last week, I reviewed a client’s options for buying later this year. 

After chatting with their Property Adviser — crunching numbers, looking at population trends and local supply reports, we both came to the same conclusion: 

“If you're waiting for a big drop, you might be waiting a while.” 

But here’s where it gets interesting… 

We’re now seeing signs the RBA could cut rates in July (with the potential for another before December) and that changes the landscape again. 

A rate cut could mean: 

• Lower borrowing costs 

• Increased borrowing power 

• More buyers re-entering the market 

• Less time to act before competition heats up again 

So if you’ve been sitting on the fence, now’s the time to ask yourself: 

• Am I looking in the right location? 

• Am I focusing on the right fundamentals (not just price)? 

• Do I have a plan for when conditions shift? 

The best investors I know don’t follow hype. 

They follow data, fundamentals, and timing. 

If you want to chat about your next move, whether that’s buying, investing, or simply watching the right areas — contact us with “Property Plan” and we’ll help you map it out. 

Oh, and July? 

Well, if the RBA does drop rates, just remember: 

Property investors love rate cuts like baristas love a good coffee pun — brewtiful! 

7Wealth Pty Ltd ABN 44609210246 is a Corporate Authorised Representatives and is authorised through Cobalt Advisers Pty Ltd ABN 64 628 654 099 who is an Australian Financial Services Licensee 512550. 7Wealth Pty Ltd is a Credit Representative of Australian Finance Group Ltd ABN 11 066 385 822 (AFG) Australian Credit Licence 389087.  
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