Is the property market about to crash?
Is the property market about to crash?
It's the question I've heard more than any other this week.
Especially from people who own an investment property.
They're worried.
Should I sell now?
Should I wait?
Am I going to be the last person holding a property that's falling in value?
It's a fair question.
Because the headlines have certainly become more negative.
Sydney auction clearance rates have fallen to around 43%.
One veteran auctioneer even described last weekend as the toughest he's seen in more than 30 years.
National mortgage applications have also dropped sharply over the past few months.
Higher interest rates.
Changes to property tax rules.
Lower borrowing capacity.
It's all starting to cool buyer demand.
Historically, falling auction clearance rates tend to lead property prices by a couple of months.
That's why we pay attention to them.
They're often an early signal of where the market is heading.
But...
Headlines rarely tell the whole story.
This week I spoke with a client who sold an investment property on Melbourne's northern fringe.
Nine days on the market.
Sold.
$690,000.
At that price point there were still plenty of buyers.
Mostly owner-occupiers.
That's the important reminder.
There isn't one Australian property market.
There are thousands of smaller markets.
Some are slowing.
Some are holding.
Some are still growing.
Western Australia is a perfect example.
Perth has continued its remarkable run, with prices up around 15% over the past year as strong migration and limited supply continue to support demand.
Meanwhile Sydney and Melbourne are carrying most of the weakness.
Even the Reserve Bank has pointed out that, while prices have eased in some areas, negative equity remains extremely low.
Less than 1% of borrowers owe more than their property is worth.
And importantly...
Most Australians are still meeting their mortgage repayments.
As I often tell my kids...
There's usually some good hidden inside every difficult situation.
For first-home buyers...
This could finally create opportunities that haven't existed for years.
For investors...
It means negotiating power is returning.
And for long-term wealth builders...
It means preparation matters more than prediction.
One of my favourite quotes says:
"Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work."
That's exactly how markets work.
When everyone feels confident...
Opportunities are often limited.
When uncertainty arrives...
Opportunities quietly begin appearing.
Not just in residential property.
Commercial property continues attracting more attention.
The Australian share market has recently climbed to a 22-week high.
The US share market is back around record highs.
The opportunities are there.
The question is whether you're prepared to take them.
That's why we spend so much time helping clients build strong foundations first.
Get the cash flow right.
Manage debt.
Build buffers.
Create a plan.
Then...
When opportunities appear...
You can act with confidence instead of hesitation.
One thing I'd be careful of is assuming what's happening today will happen forever.
Australian residential property has delivered around 6–7% average annual growth over the past 30 years.
But that doesn't mean every suburb, every year or every property performs the same.
The days of buying any property, anywhere and expecting it to double are behind us.
Today's market rewards research, patience and good advice.
If in doubt...
Zoom out.
Property has never moved in a straight line.
Neither have share markets.
Neither has life.
The people who build wealth aren't the ones who perfectly predict every market move.
They're the ones who have a plan before the opportunity arrives.
If you're wondering whether you should buy, sell, refinance or simply stay the course, we're always happy to help you think it through Contact us or SMS 0483 937 777.
Sometimes the best decision isn't making a move.
It's knowing why you're not.
Talk soon,
P.S. Next week I'll explain why so many people feel like we're already in a recession… even though Australia technically isn't. It's a fascinating difference.
Reading is helpful. Having a plan is better.
Book your free 30-minute Discovery Session and let’s build a strategy that fits your life.
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This blog contains information that is general in nature. It does not constitute financial or taxation advice. The information does not take into account your objectives, needs and circumstances. We recommend that you obtain investment and taxation advice specific to your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs before making any investment decision or acting on any of the information contained in this document. Subject to law, Cobalt Advisers Pty Ltd nor their directors, employees or authorised representatives, do not give any representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information; or accepts any responsibility for any person acting, or refraining from acting, on the basis of the information contained in this document.
